INDOOR GOLF PLANNING · BY DANIEL MONTANO
Before You Sign the Lease: 7 Numbers Every Indoor Golf Founder Should Pressure-Test
A promising building and good equipment can make a concept feel ready. Before committing to a lease, translate the idea into a weekly booking target—and identify what must be true for that target to be achievable.
This is a practical preliminary screen. The example below is fictional; it is not market research, an industry benchmark, or a recommendation to sign a lease.
1. Available bay-hours
Four simulator bays open 12 hours a day for 26 days offer 1,248 bay-hours per month. Multiply bays × open hours × open days. Subtract maintenance, private closures and hours you cannot staff. Available capacity sets the ceiling; it does not establish demand.
2. Collected revenue per booked hour
Use the amount you expect to collect, not just the advertised price. Discounts, memberships and off-peak offers can reduce the average. Our example uses $60 per booked bay-hour. Divide relevant collected revenue by the booked hours it covers to check your blended rate. If memberships are included in that rate, do not add the same receipts again as other revenue.
3. Complete monthly operating costs
The example includes $12,000 in all-in rent and occupancy plus $7,500 in other fixed costs: $19,500 per month in total. Variable costs consume 8% of sales. Replace these assumptions with written quotes for rent, CAM/NNN, payroll, utilities, insurance, software, maintenance and other obligations. Include owner compensation, debt payments and replacement reserves where needed; otherwise the result excludes them.
4. Required booked hours
Each $60 booked hour contributes $55.20 after the 8% variable-cost allowance. Dividing $19,500 by $55.20 gives 353.3 booked hours/month, 81.2 per average calendar week, or 28.3% utilization. Monthly targets rounded up require 354 hours. This simplified calculation assumes no other revenue.
Required booked hours = fixed monthly costs ÷ [collected hourly revenue × (1 − variable-cost rate)]. Break-even utilization = required hours ÷ available hours. Weekly hours use 365.25 ÷ 12 ÷ 7, approximately 4.35 weeks/month.
FICTIONAL EXAMPLE · ONE ASSUMPTION CHANGES
What does another $1,500 in monthly rent do to your booking target?
Keep the same four bays, opening hours, $60 collected hourly rate, 8% variable costs and $7,500 in other fixed monthly costs. Raise all-in rent and occupancy from $12,000 to $13,500. Each extra booked hour still contributes $55.20 toward fixed costs.
$1,500 ÷ $55.20 = 27.2 extra booked bay-hours per month, or about 6.25 per average calendar week. The total break-even target rises from 353.3 to 380.4 hours/month and from 81.2 to 87.5 hours/week. That is across the whole facility, not per bay; figures are rounded.
The question to verify: what evidence supports selling those extra hours at the same collected rate? More expensive space may bring other benefits or costs, but this isolated calculation does not assume them. It does not establish demand, profit or lease suitability.
Test your own rent and booking assumptions in the free calculator · See the fictional full-plan sample
5. Peak and off-peak demand
At an assumed 35% utilization, this facility sells 436.8 hours/month and produces a $4,611 monthly operating surplus before any omitted expenses. But bookings will not arrive evenly. Four peak hours on each of 26 open days offer only 416 peak bay-hours. Even selling every one would leave 20.8 hours to sell outside that window to reach the base case. A weekend waiting list does not prove weekday demand. Test dayparts with customer conversations, presales and comparable operators.
6. Membership capacity pressure
Sixty members using four bay-hours each month consume 240 hours, or 19.2% of total capacity. If 70% of that use falls in the four-hour peak window, members consume 168 of the 416 peak hours—40.4% of peak capacity—before other customers book. Member hours count within total booked hours, not on top of them. Stress-test usage, booking rules, collected revenue and capacity together.
7. Downside cash runway
If utilization falls 30% below the 35% base assumption, it becomes 24.5%. Holding price and costs constant, monthly sales are $18,345.60 and the operating result is −$2,622.05. Three months at that level require about $7,866.14 to cover the modeled operating shortfall. This excludes buildout, deposits, startup spending and omitted obligations. Test a slower ramp and lower collected prices before deciding how much working capital you need.
The numbers are only one decision gate
A positive operating model is conditional on its assumptions. Verify permitted use, occupancy, parking, ceiling and simulator clearances, electrical service, HVAC, accessibility and fire requirements. Obtain written buildout and equipment quotes, and understand lease guarantees, deposits, rent increases and restoration obligations.
Separate what the customer entered, what the model calculated and what independent evidence actually supports. A calculator can expose sensitivity; it cannot verify local demand or approve a property.
About Daniel Montano
Daniel has more than a decade of wildland fire operations experience, planning staffing and coordinating resources across complex assignments. He created Facility Feasibility to bring that same discipline to early facility decisions: make assumptions explicit, test capacity against costs, and identify what must be verified next. Facility Feasibility is an automated planning screen—not individually prepared consulting, market research or financial advice.
Pressure-test your own facility
Start with the free Decision Gate calculator and inspect the fictional sample. The $149 automated preliminary assessment adds three scenarios, other revenue, weekly booking targets, rent sensitivity, a slow-start test, assumption labels and pre-lease checks in a plan you can save.
Complete the assessment, continue to secure Square payment, then return after payment confirmation to open and save your plan. This first screen does not replace an independent market study, property review, construction estimate or lender-required feasibility study.
Try the free Decision Gate calculator · Inspect the corrected fictional sample
Model your facility — $149