Four-bay indoor golf center (demo)
Spokane, WA · Prepared for Sample operator · November 8, 2026
Decision being tested
Does a four-bay lease justify a deeper site and customer-demand study?
Concept: 4 bookable units in approximately 6,000 sq ft. Modeled schedule: 12 hours per day, 26 days per month.
Decision Gate: Revise
A modeled operating surplus is conditional on your inputs. Validate demand, collected hourly revenue, all-in occupancy cost, and property constraints before committing to a lease.
Proceed means proceed to independent verification: the base, conservative, and slow-start cases cover modeled costs. Revise means the base covers costs but at least one downside case loses money. Do Not Proceed Yet means base loss or unavailable / impossible break-even. All supplied assumptions remain unverified; this is not approval to sign a lease.
What must be true
- Sell at least 81.2 booked unit-hours each week to cover modeled costs.
- Collect approximately $60 per booked unit-hour after discounts and membership usage.
- Keep modeled rent and occupancy near $12,000 per month, or recalculate the booking target.
- Validate peak and off-peak bookings separately; available hours do not establish demand.
Assumption confidence & decision audit trail
| Assumption or result | Provenance | Decision impact / verification |
|---|---|---|
| 4 units · 12 hours/day · 26 days/month | Customer Input · unverified | Sets capacity. Confirm access hours, equipment and staffing. |
| 35% expected booked time | Customer Input · decision-sensitive | Validate presales, comparable facilities and daypart demand. |
| $60 per booked hour | Customer Input · decision-sensitive | Account for discounts, memberships and off-peak pricing. |
| $12,000 monthly occupancy cost | Customer Input · decision-sensitive | Confirm written lease terms, CAM/NNN and increases. |
| 28.3% break-even utilization | Calculated · conditional on inputs | Recalculate when costs, pricing or capacity change. |
| Local Census context | Unavailable | Context only; does not establish facility demand. |
| Competitor and property notes | Customer Input · unverified | Verify current prices, approvals and written vendor claims. |
Confidence labels describe provenance, not statistical certainty. Calculation method: FF-OPERATING-2.1. No independent verification is implied by customer notes.
Decision snapshot
The rent threshold is the amount remaining after entered non-rent operating costs at your expected utilization. It leaves no operating cushion and excludes debt service, owner compensation, taxes, and replacement reserves unless entered as costs. It is not a lease recommendation or appraisal.
Three operating scenarios
| Scenario | Occupied hours | Utilization | Monthly sales | Variable costs | Fixed costs | Monthly result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 284 | 22.8% | $17,035 | $1,363 | $19,500 | -$3,828 |
| Base | 437 | 35% | $26,208 | $2,097 | $19,500 | $4,611 |
| Upside | 568 | 45.5% | $34,070 | $2,726 | $19,500 | $11,845 |
Conservative/base/upside utilization is 65%/100%/130% of your estimate, capped at 95%. Secondary revenue scales at 75%/100%/120%. Prices and fixed costs are held constant. Displayed hours, percentages and dollar amounts are rounded independently; calculations use unrounded values.
Break-even and investment
Your reported monthly fixed costs total $19,500. At 8% variable costs, the model requires about $21,196 in monthly sales to cover those fixed costs. Given your entered other monthly sales and hourly price, this translates to 28.3% of bookable hours.
Booking target: about 354 paid unit-hours each month, or 81.2 per week across the facility, or 3.4 hours per unit on each open day. Actual demand may cluster at peak times.
Entered startup investment: $300,000. The base scenario annualizes to $55,336 before financing and tax. Annualizing a single month does not account for seasonality, ramp-up, or closures.
How sensitive is the concept to rent?
| Rent case | Monthly rent and occupancy | Break-even booked time | Monthly result at expected utilization |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% of entered rent | $9,600 | 24.8% | $7,011 |
| Entered rent | $12,000 | 28.3% | $4,611 |
| 120% of entered rent | $14,400 | 31.8% | $2,211 |
At your expected booked time, the maximum modeled rent before the operating result reaches zero is $16,611. Compared with the entered rent, modeled headroom is $4,611 per month. The 80% and 120% rows are sensitivity tests, not claims about market rents.
Slow-start stress test
If booked time falls to 24.5% (70% of your expected rate) and other sales fall to 80% of your estimate while fixed costs remain, modeled monthly sales are $18,346 and the operating result is -$2,622. If that persisted three months, the cumulative modeled result would be -$7,866.
This is a transparent downside test, not a forecast of local seasonality. It excludes financing, tax, owner compensation, and omitted expenses.
Local context and evidence
Demo project: no independent market lookup was performed.
Competition supplied
Two nearby simulator venues; prices need independent confirmation.
Demand supplied
No pre-sales or customer survey yet.
Property supplied
Potential site has 12-foot ceilings; zoning and build-out quote pending.
Risks to resolve before committing
- Validate customer demand, competitor prices, property constraints, and full build-out costs with independent evidence.
- Test your expected utilization against actual pre-sales, comparable facilities, or a small pilot.
- Get written quotes for lease, build-out, insurance, equipment, staffing, and financing; replace estimates in the model.
Pre-lease checks
These property and approval issues are not independently verified. User notes above are inputs, not evidence of approval. Resolve material items before signing or making non-refundable commitments.
- Permitted use, zoning, and any change-of-use approval
- Occupancy limits, fire protection, exits, and accessibility
- Parking, customer access, and shared-use restrictions
- Ceiling height, layout, sport-specific clearances, HVAC, electrical service, and internet
- Written construction, equipment, insurance, and financing quotes
- Full lease costs: CAM/NNN, deposits, increases, repairs, guarantees, and restoration
- Permit, inspection, licensing, and opening timelines
- Membership use at peak times, realized hourly revenue, and working-capital runway through a slow opening
Status: needs verification for this automated report. Confirm details with the landlord and qualified local professionals.
Evaluate your own facility
This fictional example uses the corrected four-bay inputs: $19,500 monthly fixed costs and an 8% variable-cost rate. The base monthly result is $4,611; the booking target is 353.3 hours/month, 81.2/week and 28.3% utilization. Displayed monthly targets round up.
Start your assessment — $149Inputs and calculation notes
Hourly sales = units × hours/day × days/month × scenario utilization × price/hour. Total sales add the scenario’s secondary revenue. Variable costs = total sales × variable-cost percentage. Operating result = total sales − variable costs − rent − other fixed costs.